Jose Mourinho has previously described a 1-1 scoreline as “very dangerous” for the team playing at home in the second leg.
At the time, most people were happy to pass this off as another case of Mourinho kidology. But as his Chelsea side prepares to take on Paris St Germain with exactly that score on the board, statistical analysis bears him out. One-all is a far more even scoreline than it looks.
In order to test the theory out, we asked Opta to study 187 knockout ties in the Champions League
and Europa League over the last five seasons, including this one. And
the data indicated that a 1-1 draw in the first leg is,
counter-intuitively, worse for the away team than a goalless draw.
When the first leg finishes 0-0, the team at home in the second leg
wins the tie 68 per cent of time. When it is 1-1 - the result Chelsea achieved in Paris - it only prevails 58 per cent of the time, despite having the away goal. 
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