Russian President Vladimir Putin
wants to see Donald Trump become the next president of the United
States. To that end, Putin and his government have taken unprecedented
steps to influence
our electoral process to help the Republican Party’s nominee. Whether
Russia’s interventions will succeed is not obvious. But it’s clear that
Putin’s government has the motives — and the means — to try.
Putin
has rational motives for wanting Trump to win: Trump champions many
foreign policies that Putin supports. Trump’s most shocking, pro-Kremlin
proposal is to “look into”
recognition of Crimea as a part of Russia. President Obama and nearly
every member of Congress — Republican and Democrat — have rejected that
idea vigorously. Only Afghanistan, Cuba, Nicaragua, North Korea, Syria
and Venezuela have recognized Russia’s annexation of Crimea. Naturally, Putin would love to see the United States join that list.
Trump
also has made clear his disdain for the United States’ alliances around
the world. Demonstrating his misunderstanding of how NATO works, Trump
has demanded that other NATO members essentially pay us
for protection, making many of our allies, especially in the eastern
part of Europe, nervous about his commitment to defend them. Trump has
also disparaged our allies in Asia, creating new opportunities for Russian influence. On trade,
Trump’s promises to disrupt our agreements also play right into Putin’s
agenda. From Putin’s perspective, what could be a better way to start
the New Year than a trade war between the United States and China or
Mexico? Trump’s threats to stop paying our debts also would radically undermine our credibility as a lender, another desirable outcome for Putin.
On
the whole, Trump advocates isolationist policies and an abdication of
U.S. leadership in the world. He cares little about promoting democracy
and human rights. A U.S. retreat from global affairs fits precisely with
Putin’s international interests. And if Mr. Trump becomes president,
experts on U.S. politics predict a tumultuous period domestically. If a
President Trump tried to implement his radical ideas regarding immigration or walling
off our southern border, a serious push-back effort would ensue, both
in Congress and in the country as a whole. A United States convulsed by
infighting over Trump’s deeply divisive policy proposals gives Putin
more freedom to act around the world.
If
a Trump victory would serve Putin’s interests, a President Hillary
Clinton would not. Clinton will never recognize Crimea as part of
Russia, seeks to strengthen relations with our allies and speaks out
about human rights.
Putin
and his government already know Clinton from her four years as
secretary of state. They remember the tough line she took in seeking to
negotiate a political transition in Syria; her efforts — though failed —
to get Russia to support even modest U.N. Security Council resolutions
regarding this humanitarian tragedy; and her early advocacy for arming
Syria opponents of Bashar al-Assad, Moscow’s ally. They remember her
public criticism of irregularities in Russia’s December 2011
parliamentary election, which Putin lambasted
as a “signal” to Russian protesters to take to the streets against him.
And they remember her portrayal of Putin’s prized foreign policy
project — the creation of the Eurasia Economic Union — as a “a move to re-Sovietize the region.” No one should be surprised that Putin and his government would rather see Trump in the White House.
Kremlin-controlled
media outlets have stated publicly their preference for Trump. RT,
Russia’s state-controlled television station broadcasting in the United
States, has a clear preference for Trump. In one of many pro-Trump
reports, the Russian state-controlled news service, Sputnik, said it confirmed
Trump’s claim about Obama being the “founder” of the Islamic State and
tweeted the hashtag: #CrookedHillary. With vigor and volume, pro-Kremlin
bloggers echoed these same messages on Twitter and Facebook. Putin
himself has weighed in, praising Trump as a “colorful” (“yarkii”) and talented politician (though not as a genius, as Trump has claimed), who seems more amendable to work with Russia than other candidates.
More audaciously, Russians apparently stole emails from the Democratic National Committee, after which Trump then encouraged
Russian spies to steal again and publish more of Clinton’s emails. No
one should be surprised that the Russian government uses its incredible
cyber capabilities to collect intelligence on important U.S.
politicians. That is what spies are supposed to do. What they have never
done in the past, however, is publish stolen information to influence a
U.S. presidential election.
To be precise, WikiLeaks
— not the Kremlin — dumped this data into the public domain on the eve
of the Democratic National Convention with the clear and successful
intent of damaging the Democratic Party and their candidate for
president. To remind, WikiLeaks is a foreign agent now meddling directly
in our electoral process. We are unlikely to ever know for sure if
Russian spies gave this data to WikiLeaks, as WikiLeaks refuses to say
and probably would not even know. The Russians are sophisticated enough
to use intermediaries to make sure the recipients of the stolen
information would not know the original source. WikiLeaks is promising
to release more emails, fueling expectations about a possible “October surprise.”
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