The newly elected president of France, Emmanuel Macron, might be able
to clinch majority backing in parliament after elections this month and
make it easier for his planned reforms of the French economy to get
approved.
But he will have to deal carefully with labor unions and other lobby
groups to avoid strikes and other disruptions in protest to his intended
law changes that could make it easier for people to get employed while
it might take some sacrifices by people already in jobs.
Opinion polls show that Macron’s movement, founded just over a year
ago, could win 28 percent of the votes in the first round and end up
with 310 to 330 seats in parliament after the second round. There are
577 seats in parliament and as many voting circumscriptions.
Macron’s alliance with François Baroux’s centrist Modem party and his
decision to nominate a Prime Minister from the ranks of the
center-right The Republicans are among the reasons that his centrist
block could carry the day in a country mainly characterized by a
left-right divide since World War Two.
Of the 526 candidates for Macron’s The Republic On The Move, many
never held public office before and these new faces are also welcome tot
hos French that voted in protest against the establishment.
A poll by OpinionWay shows that the center-right block of The
Republicans and UDI could obtain between 140 and 160 seats. This would
place it in the position of largest opposition party but several
politicians within the block are open to cooperation with Macron.
The Socialist Party of former president François Hollande is seen at
just 25-30 seats, while their left-wing block held 295 seats after the
2012 elections. The new left-wing party Defiant France, led by
anti-capitalism firebrand Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is seen at an equal size
at 25-30 seats. The far-right Front National could gain 10 to 12 seats,
up from two now.
Such a make-up of parliament could also give Macron a strong position
in the senate after the indirect elections in September. But the more
comfortable his position may be in the elected instances in Paris, the
more likely that Macron will have to deal with possible protests in the
streets of France.
Follow me @marmaamic on Twitter.
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